I haven't posted in a week or so. Partly because I'm still in mourning because of the debacle the NBA put in front of us for the Finals, and partly because all these trade rumors are driving me crazy. As soon as I get an opinion formulated on a complicated 4-way deal that sends KG to the Lakers and Jermaine O'Neal to the Celtics, it falls off the table (justifiably so – that one was a dog). We're now a few days from the Draft, and things are settling enough to make a post that's not outdated in 8 hours.
For all the weird talk, there are just a few teams actively discussing trades. The Celtics want veterans, the Timberwolves are kind-of interested in trading KG, the Lakers are not-very-interested in trading Kobe, and the Suns are in the middle of every trade rumor. Between Marion, KG, Kobe and several lottery picks in the deepest draft in a decade, this is a fascinating offseason – much more so than the Finals even (you listening David Stern?)
- The Lakers are desperate, but about 2 years too late. As so many others have pointed out already, they have the greatest player in his generation in his prime, and their following a youth movement. This makes absolutely no sense. You either add veterans who can help win today, or rebuild and plan for the future. The Lakers are trying to do both at the same time. Kobe is right to be bitching, and the Lakers look stupid. You don't build around Jordan Farmour, Odom, Andrew Bynum and Kobe. You add pieces to Odom and Kobe (i.e., Jason Kidd / Ron Artest), or you trade the veterans and build youth around Bynum / Farmour. GM 101, assholes. So the Lakers are desperate. They can't trade Kobe, or they lose their panache and season ticket revenue. At the same time, the young pieces and contracts they have don't interest anyone. Any move they make is a step down, period. It doesn't help when Mitch Kupchak is saying publicly that the team underachieved last season. They're desperate to appease Kobe and improve, but what options do they have? Who can they add at this point? Bottom line, nothing happens. They don't trade Kobe and they can't make a significant move to help the franchise. Status quo until training camp and Kobe holds out, then all bets are off.
- The Timberwolves are delusional. They should have started looking at trades for Garnett a year ago. Now, there are lots of scenarios but few of them are along the lines of what Minnesota wants. They want 90 cents on the dollar, when they should be looking at 75 cents. They're not getting Al Jefferson and the Celts #5, and they're not getting Amare Stoudemire. Of course, they could do nothing and lose Garnett next year with no compensation. Better to get some cap relief and a few draft picks. I see Garnett moving, but if it drags on after the draft then it could easily drag on until the trade deadline. At which point, they get 50 cents on the dollar, and future draft picks in a weaker draft.
- The Suns don't have to do shit. They all-but-won it all last year, and look to be even better this coming year with Amare another year removed from micro-fracture knee surgery. They would like to move Marion because of salary cap and chemistry issues, but don't necessarily have to. I think they'll move him, likely for a high draft pick, and not for KG.
- The Celtics – good god, what are they thinking. That they let themselves be mentioned in a trade that had them giving up Jefferson and the #5 for Jermaine O'Neal is sinful. They're in the same boat as the Lakers, though. A bunch of youth and one great veteran. You can't win with that, and you can't build around the youth because the vet commands so much attention and cap space. Honestly, I'm surprised their trading the pick by itself, and not with Paul Pierce. Looks to me that Ainge thinks he's closer to a title run than he really is.
The bottom line to me, is that none of the trade scenarios look viable, mostly because NBA GMs are stupid and ball-less. I doubt anything big will happen before the draft.
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