I've watched every San Antonio playoff game.  Every single one.  They've only lost twice in these playoffs, and I've noticed a theme in both of them.  Tim Duncan gets in foul trouble.

See, Duncan is REALLY good at skirting the line, as is Bowen.  He always has his hands almost streight up, rarely bodies anyone, and almost never leaves his feet.  Yes, this is great defensive positioning...but if you still get the arm, it's still a foul...if you still go over the back on an offensive rebound, it's still a foul...unless your TD.  On the offensive end, he never lowers a shoulder.  Basically, he plays the game streight up and down, which allows him be more aggressive defensively than anyone else in the league.  When he's free to play like that, he can be a force defensively.  Of course, this is largely because he gets called for 2 of every 4 fouls he actually commits.  Regardless, when the game is being called tight, and he gets in foul trouble, he can't be as aggresive defensively, which filters down to everyone else.  For example, Bowen can only body up on whomever he's gaurding because he's not worried about the guy getting by him...Duncan's always waiting.  If Duncan has to play off a little, or is on the bench, things don't go so well for the Spurs.

To better illustrate, look at the following:

• Utah (Game 1) - 4th and 5th fouls with less than a minute remaining...WIN
• Phoenix (Game 6) - Finishes with 3 fouls...WIN
• Phoenix (Game 5) - Finishes with 3 fouls...WIN
• Phoenix (Game 4) - 3rd foul at 7:26 in the second quarter, 5th with 6:18 left...LOSE
• Phoenix (Game 3) - 4th foul with :38 remaining...WIN
• Phoenix (Game 2) - An interesting game in terms of this hypothosis.  Duncan gets his 4th foul with 2:56 left in the 3rd, and Phoenix is only up 5.  He leaves right away (replaced by Horry), and comes back with 9:15 left in the 4th.  Suns are up 11 now, and never really look back.  Duncan doesn't do much after that, as the game gets increasingly out of reach, he finishes the game out with 2 points, 3 missed shots and a few defensive rebounds...LOSE
• Phoenix (Game 1) - Finishes with 2 (!) personal fouls...WIN
• Denver (Game 5) - Finishes with 3 personal fouls (Finley's 8-9 3pointers don't hurt)...WIN
• Denver (Game 4) - Finishes with 1 (!) personal fouls...WIN
• Denver (Game 3) - Finishes with ZERO fouls.  Interestingly, he's one of only 3 players to get PT and not register a personal foul.  Brent Barry (5 minutes) and Linus Kleiza (5 minutes) where the others.  Duncan played 41 minutes in the paint, in a very physical playoff game without committing a single foul.  Um, yeah...WIN
• Denver (Game 2) - Finishes with 3 fouls...WIN
• Denver (Game 1) - Finishes with 3 fouls...WIN

What's just astounding is how many times he ends up with 3 or fewer fouls. EIGHT of the twelve games!  Huh??  In the other 4 games, he ended up with 4 fouls once, drew 4 and 5 in the last minute of the game, and they lost the other two.

The point of all this?

1. If you want to see who will win, see when Duncan draws his 3rd foul (if at all)
2. Anyone really think the NBA refs don't protect Duncan just a little?  So much for there being retribution for getting Crawford fired...